How to Bet on American Football?
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How To Bet On American Football Lines
The most popular and certainly the most traditional way to bet on American football games is known as the Point Spread.
American football Point Spreads (also known as betting lines or handicaps) is an estimated final margin for a given American football game. Bookmakers determine the margin as a 50/50 bet. In other words, they believe there is a 50% chance the result will end on one side of the estimated margin and a 50% chance the result will end on the other side of the estimated margin. Bettors can bet on which side of the margin the game will end on.
So how to bet on American football spreads and handicaps? Let’s consider an example. Let’s say that the Dallas Cowboys are playing the Washington Redskins. The point spread for this game is listed as at bookmaker Ladbrokes:
What does this mean?
Well, for starters the Cowboys are considered the favorites as they are the minus handicap while the Redskins are the underdogs with the plus handicap.
The bookmakers have therefore determined that the final margin will be either side of Dallas by 6.5 points. Bettors can then bet on either side of this margin.
So if you believe Dallas will win by more than 6.5 points (I.e 7 points or more) you bet on Dallas -6.5 points.
Calculating A Winning American Football Spread Bet
On the other hand, if you believe that the Redskins will win the game or at the very least will not lose by more than 6.5 points (6 points or less), you bet on Washington +6.5 points.
Calculating whether your NFL point spread bet was a winner is simple. Let’s say that Dallas wins the game 30 to Washington 20.
If you bet on the favorite, in our example Dallas -6.5, you deduct 6.5 points from their final score. In this case that would leave us with an adjusted final score of Dallas 23.5 and Washington 20. With the handicap deducted, Dallas is still the winner meaning your bet on Dallas -6.5 points is a winning bet.
On the other hand, if you had bet on Washington +6.5 points, we add 6.5 points to their final score, giving us an adjusted final score of Dallas 30 and Washington 26.5. Unfortunately for us, even with the handicap added to Washington’s score, Dallas still wins the game so our bet on Washington +6.5 points is a losing bet.
When a team wins a point spread bet, it is often referred to as ‘covering the spread’.
American Football Spread Odds
Odds for American football point spreads range between 1.90 and 1.95 depending upon your bookmaker. If you intend to focus on American football point spreads, we suggest your bookmaker offers at the very least odds of 1.92 on American football point spreads.
If you bet on American football point spreads randomly, over a large enough sample size you will have a 50% strike rate. The table below shows the strike rate needed to make a profit relative to the odds available.
Most serious American football bettors look to hit a strike rate of 54%. As you can see, the difference between failure and success betting on American football point spreads may seem slight, but those few percentage points make a world of difference.
How To Bet On American Football Over Unders
Another popular American football bet type is the points total market, also known as Over Unders.
What is an Over Underbet?
An Over Under bet is simple. Similar to a point spread, a bookmaker sets a total number of points that they think will be scored in an American football game, with a 50% chance that the game will end with more than that number of points scored and a 50% chance that the game will end with fewer than that many points scored.
For example, the example below shows the Over Under points total at bookmaker Coral for a game between the Arizona Cardinals and the Atlanta Falcons. As we can see, bettors can bet on either side of 50.5 total points scored in the game.
If you bet on Over 50.5 points, you need the two teams to score a total of at least 51 points for your bet to win. On the other hand, if you bet on Under 50.5 points, you need the two teams to score a total of at most 50 points.
As with point spreads, bookmakers offer odds of between 1.90 and 1.95 for American football point total bets.
It’s also possible to bet on individual team points totals. This is similar to the game total but instead of considering the total combined points scored, all you are concerned with is the points total of a particular team.
How To Bet On American Football Moneylines
American football Moneyline bets are simply head-to-head bets where you are betting on the final result (including over time). No handicaps, and no points totals. All that matters is who wins.
Below is an example of an American football Moneyline market with odds listed at bookmaker William Hill for a game between the Cleveland Browns and the New York Giants.
As we can see, the Giants are clear favorites in this game at odds of 1.34 while the Browns are at odds of 3.35.
As we said, there are no handicaps involved in American football Moneyline bets. You are simply betting on who you think will win the game. If you believe there is value in New York, you bet on them to win the game at odds of 1.34. On the other hand, if you believe there is value in Cleveland you bet on them to win the game at odds of 3.35.
Many American football bettors like to mix and match money lines with point spreads. For example, Cleveland’s point spread is +7.5 for this game. Many bettors like to hedge the Moneyline with the point spread. For example, they will bet $50 on Cleveland to win the game at odds of 3.35 and £55 on them to at least cover the point spread at odds of 1.91. If Cleveland wins the game, you win both bets. If Cleveland loses but by no more than 7 points, you win your point spread bet making a profit of roughly £50, covering your stake for your Moneyline bet.
How To Bet On American Football Futures And Outrights
Not only can you bet on American football games, but you can also bet on NFL and College football futures and outrights. Betting on American football futures involves betting on the winners of the following:
- NFL Super Bowl Winner
- NFL Conference Champions
- NFL Division Winners
- NFL Most Valuable Player
- NCAA National Champions
- NCAA Heisman Trophy Winner
Other Popular American Football Odds
Thanks to the explosion in online betting, bookmakers now offer a deep menu of American football odds to bet on. The most popular of these additional markets are:
You can also bet on a range of statistical markets. These include:
How To Bet On American Football: Betting Strategies
American football is one of the most difficult sports in the world to bet on. The brevity of the NFL and NCAA seasons coupled with the level of personnel changes from season to season can make determining team potential a tough task.
Despite the challenges of betting on American football, there are still bettors who do enjoy betting long-term on both the NFL and NCAA. FootballTerms will show you how you can improve your chances of being one of the few American football bettors who end the season with a positive return.
